The Nut: Ads do stop?! Enjoy the final week of ads with this guide to a fun filled election night. If you still haven’t voted, you must read the list of needed victories. And who doesn’t need a drinking game for election night?
Would you like to buy a monkey?
Are you really ready to watch TV without political advertisements? Get the credit card out of reach and be prepared to see products you may actually want to buy. But before it’s all gone, let’s pay homage to everyone that has provided us the entertainment of the last year of politics.
For the stragglers, you’re not too late, hell, you can even still count yourself as doing it early if you hurry. Voting has been going strong and if you don’t do it by Tuesday, Nov. 4th, enjoy being shunned for the coming two years. If you’ve still got a ballot to be counted, follow this handy guide through the good and the bad from New Mexico to Alaska.
President: Obama. It’s your choice of being on the cool or lame side of history in this race.
New Mexico Senate: Tom Udall. Do you want the up and coming progressive supporter of renewable energy, a set timetable for ending the war in Iraq and at least making an attempt at establishing an affordable health care system or the guy that thinks those ideas are socialist dreams?
New Mexico House 1: Martin Heinrich. For those in the Albuquerque area, the choice is the pretty boy Dem that’s never held a real job in his life. The candidate that didn’t chair Bush-Cheney’ re-election bid in Bernalillo County. He’s also not the candidate that gave up his job because Gov. Johnson wanted to end the war on drugs.
New Mexico House 2: Harry Teague. Who says all Dems are the same? This guy made his money from oil, but still knows how to invest in clean fuel technologies. Everyone in southern New Mexico needs to give Steve Pearce an extra slap on his way down and put his old seat in Democratic hands.
New Mexico House 3: Ben Ray Lujan. The easiest part of the solid blue New Mexico plan.
New Mexico State Senators: Tim Eichenberg. Anyone living in the midtown/near heights area that can vote for Tim Eichenberg, please do and help this progressive Democrat unseat a conservative Republican.
New Mexico 2nd Judicial District, District Attorney: Kari Brandenburg. Torraco is just like Palin: Not trustable with a vote.
New Mexico Constitutional Amendment 5: Yes. Think about it. The candidate for Governor picks the Lieutenant Governor he or she runs with, so who else should pick who the sitting Governor works with?
Other good races around the nation:
Colorado Senate: Mark Udall. Just think of the synergy freshman Senators and cousins Mark and Tom will have. Coloradoans should also think about electing the dood that supports the Department of Peace:
Colorado House 4: Betsy Markey. In the only competitive Colorado House race, Betsy Markey must replace the Heather Wilson of Colorado. For the Sarah Palin lovers out there, this is a cute politician.
Kansas House 2: Nancy Boyda. She only had one term, there’s no point in throwing her out just yet. Give her another few years before you pass judgment.
Kansas Senate: Jim Slattery. If this race is close, expect massively gargantuan accusations across the nation about voter fraud from the defeated right. But Jim’s a good guy so vote for him if you get the chance.
Alaska Senate: Mark Begich. If there’s an Alaska reader out there, please ask yourself “do I want my state represented in the Senate by a convicted felon?” If not, vote Begich!
Minnesota Senate: Al Franken. Just so we get to the do the ‘good enough, smart enough’ joke one more time. Also, because Coleman has gotten in his share of trouble.
Texas Senate: Rick Noriega. If you’ve got a vote in Texas, use it to oust old-timer John Cornyn. We won’t hold it against you if this race doesn’t tip Dem, but if it does, look out for a wild night.
Mississippi Senate Race 1: Ronnie Musgrove. This is step one in Operation Isolate Alabama.
Georgia Senate: Jim Martin. Step two of OIA. Let’s see the Obama turnout machine kick in!
Kentucky Senate: Bruce Lundsford. Step three of OIA. Give the House Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell the boot and let another Republican take the reigns in the Senate.
Oregon Senate: Jeff Merkley. If there was one Republican Senator that could be spared, it might be Gordon Smith of Oregon, but without Merkley, the dreams of cloture are out of reach.
Montana Governor: Brian Schweitzer. Brian earns the Barack Out support just for an excuse to post video of the best campaign commercial of the year.
California Marriage Amendment: No. Attention Californians! Don’t give away all of the perceptions people have of you being a progressive, smart, forward-thinking state with one stupid vote you will soon come to be very ashamed of. See the way future, see a tolerance for gay marriage.
Down Ballot Races: Go to your county clerk’s website and find a sample ballot (to the googler!) Side note: if your county clerk doesn’t provide a sample ballot for you to view, we suggest hiring a new county clerk. Look up the races you will be voting on. Then call up the League of Women Voters and see what they have to say about the different judges, amendments, bond issues and various other questions on the ballot.
There’s plenty of action to watch across the nation on election night. The size and breadth of the Democratic wave that’s about to land will dominate, it’s just a question of how wide the destruction is felt. With that being said, it would be irresponsible to proceed further without predicting the future for everyone too eager to live it.
The official Barack Out With My Cock Out 2008 Election Predictions
Presidential popular vote: 55% Obama, 44% McCain 1% Barr, Nudar and Co.
Electoral Votes: 396-142
Final Senate Count: D-58, R-40, I-2 (and Lieberman will not caucus with the Democrats)
Final House Count: D-258, R-180
Election night surprises: One of the three southern senate races will go the Dems’ way (GA, MS or KY), New Mexico will turn solid blue with Udall taking the Senate race, Heinrich claiming the first district and Teague eliminating the last corner of red by winning the southern congressional district. Watch out for Montana, North Dakota and Georgia propelling Obama up to that 392 total.
Election Night Drinking Game
What’s a political event without booze? It’s voting in Utah, where they still mandate no sauce be poured on a polling day. Everyone else should be ably equipped with a quality drinking game to celebrate election night. Toast all of your hard work . . . celebrate victories . . . mourn the end of Heartless Halliburton Heather “I just love Janet Jackson” Wilson, Ted “It’s all my wife’s fault” Stevens, Tim “I thought the Rep from this district got to sleep around” Mahoney and the careers of so many more . . . place your bets with drinks and get started with these basic ground rules:
Take 1 drink for every house seat that changes hands
Give 5 if you’re from that state
Give 20 if you voted in that election
Take 5 drinks for every senate seat that changes hands
Give 10 drinks if you’re from that state
Give 20 if you voted in that election
Take 1 drink every time you hear a commentator say “too close to call”
Take 2 drinks for every Bush 2004 state that Obama wins.
Take a shot for every Kerry 2004 state McCain wins
Give 5 drinks if you have lived at one time in that state (at least 1 month)
Give 10 drinks if you cast your ballot in that state
Take a shot for every called state that is changed back to a toss up or the opposition
Side betting on all races is highly encouraged
Its been a long fun road. We’ll be back at least one more time to recap how it all played out. Happy electioneering everyone!
Showing posts with label Mark Begich. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark Begich. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Remember New Hampshire or uncork the champagne?
The Nut: While no staffer will tell you its over yet, we are no fool: its over! Like a turtled box turtle, John McCain is on his back, helplessly flailing in a desperate attempt to right himself before a predator swoops down to swipe up a tasty snack. And like any other turtled tortoise, it is going to take a great outside force to upend his plight and restore his chances for survival. The work isn’t completely done, so pitch in like many artists around New Mexico did in their own unique way. Early voting has started in New Mexico and the County Clerk says my ballot is in the mail . . . let’s party!
Crayon or Magic Marker?
The writing on the wall has overtaken the canvass and we’re going to need a bigger wall (not along the border, settle down) if we have to write McCain and team “crap, this isn’t working either” another message. Surely, they have observed the clear signs from . . . North Carolina and Virginia that have swung out of his reach and will not just support President Obama, but also switch a senate seat to the Democrats side with Kay Hagen from NC and Mark Warner from Virginia. . . . or maybe they’ve taken notice that once unthinkable West Virginia is in play despite the Campaign for Change’s own worries that the state wasn’t progressive enough to elect a man with such a dark complexion. . . . maybe they figured out the game was over a couple weeks ago and signaled their concession by pulling out all efforts in Michigan. Take your pick of which state and what day, but one or the other had to have tipped off the former member of the Keating 5, the 21-year Senator that has called his wife worse things than bigots have called President-elect Obama.
Is that not direct enough proof for you? Ok, who has ever heard of a bookie paying out before the game ends? http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081016/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_bookmaker_obama_odd
So what’s left to do?
A lot more than planning the big Election Night party and post-Election Night cheap excuse for why you were so late to work that morning. Polls don’t vote (nor do yard signs according to many disgruntled Obama staffers) and as all of the Democratic candidates reminded John Edwards during the primary, polls are great, but election results are real (ethmm, 2004 . . . national result with that guy on the ticket, NC result . . . not in favor of Edwards). Go turn out the votes!
Go turn yourself out and don’t waste the gas on driving just yourself to an early voting location. (click on Voter Info) ** New Mexico guarantees you at least two hours away from work to get that ballot in the box, so make the most of it. The sooner you vote, the sooner the calls will stop. That’s a guarantee. The campaigns get updated lists from the County Clerk on a regular basis and once your name is listed as “already voted” they will leave you alone.
Go knock on doors and take advantage of the fact that you’re enjoying an Indian Summer in New Mexico and not the bitter beginning of winter in states further north. Go recruit your friends and take them early to the linked locations around Albuquerque. (click on Voter Info) **Disclaimer: Yes, the early voting locations list is provided by the Democratic party’s website . . .because they County Clerk doesn’t have her act together and the link to her listing is broken.
Or better yet, get creative like many artists around Albuquerque did and show your support in your own unique way. Maybe your explanation of Obama’s health care plan doesn’t sound as good as your guitar, ok, work with it like Bekah Wiggins did and raise a little money for Obama:
This picture was from the event Art for Change, which gathered numerous artists from five different states to offer their own personal creations to raise money for Obama’s New Mexican Campaign for Change. In addition to pulling in nearly $4,000 of cash, the event registered a few new voters and recruited many new supporters to do the real work of the election – turning supporters into voters. Hannah Macpherson and Bekah Wiggins came up with the idea and put it into action utilizing their circles of friends. The Obama campaign wasn’t involved in any of the planning until they graciously accepted the money that was raised. Hannah and Bekah will be beating down the doors to find everyone that hasn’t cast their ballot yet and they’d love to have you join them.
Blue Suspenders
There is still plenty of fun-filled speculation left, though. The biggest question Barack Out With My Cock Out faces is if a symbolic Bible Belt will remain intact across the electoral map. In 2000 and 2004 it was strong and wide, ready for the most excessive of New Mexican belt buckles, but in the last 4 years the belt has withered down so thin, only the trendiest hipster doofus might sport it. For the visually inclined, Realclearpolitics.com provides a great chart of where things stand. When you do the math on how Obama is running at least double the amount of advertising of McCain’s campaign and then add in the fact that Obama’s supporters are twice as enthusiastic about his candidacy as McCain’s (in fairness, the Obama Nation is much younger, more agile and generally more active than McCain’s geriatrics) you start to see the where the election is going.
Now get another plate, we’ve got more things to add. Add in the ties McCain has to Mr. Unpopular AKA President Bush and his proud support of the President’s policies “over 90% of the time” ‘. . . more than most of his Republican colleagues.’ Add to it his statement that he just doesn’t know so much about the economy. On top of that, add the fact that the majority of the battle of this election is not being fought in the swing states, but in the states that were surely expected to support the Republican nominee.
The big question that remains about the election is whether there will be an unabridged belt wrapping across our nation from North Dakota down to Georgia. Barack Out With My Cock Out has studied fivethirtyeight.com, realclearpolitics.com, politico.com and countless other sources for far too long to have any uncertainty in stating that the belt will survive without the blue connecting New Mexico to Maine, but with a shocking surprise in Kansas or South Dakota that goes out the window. It won’t reach from Canada to the Atlantic, but it will get to the Gulf of Mexico.
The Bradley effect and other unfounded notions
Much has been made about the issue of the accuracy of polling and how each poll represents the forthcoming actions of the voters. Every poll has a margin of error for a reason – they just aren’t perfect. We’ll skip the Stat 101 lecture and brush gently on the issues the pollsters face. Finding a perfect representation of the overall population is impossible because you don’t know what that overall population looks like. Not everyone will or is able to vote so pollsters attempt to determine how to represent the portion of people that will participate in the election. A “likely voter universe” is as easy to identify as a Chupacabra or a Poltergeist. But one issue we are confident they are not facing is whether race will skew the polling results in comparison to the electoral results.
A quick stop in History class teaches us that the Bradley Effect derives its name from former Mayor of Los Angeles Tom Bradley and his failed candidacy for the Governorship of California. Bradley was a black politician that was leading in the polls going into Election Day only to end up losing. Many people attributed the divergence in polling numbers and the result to the presumption that people being interviewed for the poll were ashamed to admit they would be voting for the white guy rather than the black man. This theory has had few opportunities to be tested since Bradley’s 1982 defeat. Some fear pollsters over-compensate for racial tensions. Some worry they poll the wrong portions of the population that would have these sentiments. Some fear just the mention of this idea might encourage others to mislead pollsters. Some people go on with their lives. After a painful winter experience in Iowa, Barack Out With My Cock Out knows that people love to mislead pollsters, but does not worry about this throwing the election. The Bradley Effect, if it does exist is said to only account for up to a 5 point shift. So if you look around the nation and award Obama all of the states where he hold at least a 6 point lead, he still wins 277 electoral votes (calculated from realclearpolitics.com’s poll averages – a conservative-leaning site). Let’s say NM Sec. of State Mary Herrera screws up everything in New Mexico and gives away the state’s votes to McCain, . . . Obama still wins with 2 extra votes.
We’re looking at the numbers of young voters that might finally turn out en masse to support the Democratic nominee. We’re looking at the portions of the population that pollsters may not be accurately accounting for in their samples to swing this election far past any Bradley Effect or worse.
We’re also thinking of all of the friends we have that may let a distasteful remark here and there that are still voting for Obama. The most fascinating aspect of Obama’s candidacy is not that he is going to become the first black President, but that he is earning the support of people that otherwise would have nothing to do with people of a different race of your own. More and more voters stuck in the ante bellum days of our republic are coming out in sincere support of Obama. Think about it. Think about all of your friends and those that have used an ugly joke or a slur you’d never imagine uttering in front of a member of that minority group and think about how many of them still have friends of the minority groups they take so much joy in belittling. Racism is not dead, but it has evolved into a very odd form where people hold their views internally, but still behave in a mature manner when face to face in the real world. The world isn’t perfect yet – as evidenced by McCain’s un-ending attempts to convince voters Obama is a Islamic terrorist in order to gain ground in the race – but it is improving and racism has no chance to derail Obama’s victory train.
390-148 and . . . ?
You saw it here first. Two weeks out and that’s the way it’s going to be. Barack Out With My Cock out came to this number by looking at all battlegrounds and acknowledging the superior ground effort, the superior expenditures on advertising and the general shift in the opinions of the country put these states in President-elect Obama’s column. Now the real guessing game is which state that is supposed to be outside of any reach of Obama will also fall his way. Georgia was our choice, but Arkansas, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and even Mississippi are all vying to be the surprise of Election Night.
The more important question is if the Democrats will achieve a cloture-proof majority in the Senate (look it up). As good as this wave we’re riding is, we aren’t holding our breath. The one flaw of fivethirtyeight.com is that it consistently states that the Democrats must pick up nine seats to achieve this very important legislative advantage. However, we cannot hold any faith that the turncoat Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) would abed such ruthless legislating after spending the last year on the campaign trail with Sen. McCain. Maybe it could happen in 2010, but not this year. But we’re dying to be proven incorrect.
To quickly count seat by seat, it appears the Udall boys are ready to roll and will pick up the seats in New Mexico and Colorado (Tom and Mark, respectively). In Oregon, moderate Republican Gordon Smith can’t say enough nice things about Obama to save his seat from being claimed by Jeff Merkley. Virginia has the safest of safe seats for a Dem to win and Mark Warner is doing just that. Jeanne Shaheen will upend Sen. John Sununu’s career in Maine. Kay Hagen will claim what could have been the second senate seat for the Democrats in North Carolina if John Edwards had run for reelection in 2004 (maybe. according to insiders, Edwards probably would have lost his reelection had he at least attempted to hold the seat). Mayor of Anchorage Mark Begich is relieving 40-year Senator Ted Stevens just in time for Stevens to head to jail for the free home makeover he received from lobbyists (way to blame your wife! You’re the man!). And the most laughable of races takes place in Minnesota – those guys just can’t get enough of celebrities and are on track to send Al Franken to Washington because he’s good enough, he’s smart enough, and damnit, people kinda like him.
So that’s eight seats they’ll add. NOW your complaints that the Dem’s aren’t ending the war in Iraq fast enough are valid. Previously, they were unfounded since the Dems did not have a majority in the Senate on that issue because Lieberman just loves dumping $10bil a month into a mission President Bush stated was already accomplished.
The Gut Feeling
At the end of the day, it comes down to the little things. And at the end of the day, Barack Out With My Cock Out wants a President that can stroke a jumper from 15 feet like Larry Bird, not a dying bird. The next update will contain the official voting guide for New Mexicans with encouragement to residents of other states for important contests. As soon as the lazy Mary Herrera-wannabe County Clerk gets me my mail-in ballot, its on. Hey Maggie, put a staffer on dropping my ballot into the mail and get the rest of the team working on fixing your website.
Crayon or Magic Marker?
The writing on the wall has overtaken the canvass and we’re going to need a bigger wall (not along the border, settle down) if we have to write McCain and team “crap, this isn’t working either” another message. Surely, they have observed the clear signs from . . . North Carolina and Virginia that have swung out of his reach and will not just support President Obama, but also switch a senate seat to the Democrats side with Kay Hagen from NC and Mark Warner from Virginia. . . . or maybe they’ve taken notice that once unthinkable West Virginia is in play despite the Campaign for Change’s own worries that the state wasn’t progressive enough to elect a man with such a dark complexion. . . . maybe they figured out the game was over a couple weeks ago and signaled their concession by pulling out all efforts in Michigan. Take your pick of which state and what day, but one or the other had to have tipped off the former member of the Keating 5, the 21-year Senator that has called his wife worse things than bigots have called President-elect Obama.
Is that not direct enough proof for you? Ok, who has ever heard of a bookie paying out before the game ends? http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081016/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_bookmaker_obama_odd
So what’s left to do?
A lot more than planning the big Election Night party and post-Election Night cheap excuse for why you were so late to work that morning. Polls don’t vote (nor do yard signs according to many disgruntled Obama staffers) and as all of the Democratic candidates reminded John Edwards during the primary, polls are great, but election results are real (ethmm, 2004 . . . national result with that guy on the ticket, NC result . . . not in favor of Edwards). Go turn out the votes!
Go turn yourself out and don’t waste the gas on driving just yourself to an early voting location. (click on Voter Info) ** New Mexico guarantees you at least two hours away from work to get that ballot in the box, so make the most of it. The sooner you vote, the sooner the calls will stop. That’s a guarantee. The campaigns get updated lists from the County Clerk on a regular basis and once your name is listed as “already voted” they will leave you alone.
Go knock on doors and take advantage of the fact that you’re enjoying an Indian Summer in New Mexico and not the bitter beginning of winter in states further north. Go recruit your friends and take them early to the linked locations around Albuquerque. (click on Voter Info) **Disclaimer: Yes, the early voting locations list is provided by the Democratic party’s website . . .because they County Clerk doesn’t have her act together and the link to her listing is broken.
Or better yet, get creative like many artists around Albuquerque did and show your support in your own unique way. Maybe your explanation of Obama’s health care plan doesn’t sound as good as your guitar, ok, work with it like Bekah Wiggins did and raise a little money for Obama:
This picture was from the event Art for Change, which gathered numerous artists from five different states to offer their own personal creations to raise money for Obama’s New Mexican Campaign for Change. In addition to pulling in nearly $4,000 of cash, the event registered a few new voters and recruited many new supporters to do the real work of the election – turning supporters into voters. Hannah Macpherson and Bekah Wiggins came up with the idea and put it into action utilizing their circles of friends. The Obama campaign wasn’t involved in any of the planning until they graciously accepted the money that was raised. Hannah and Bekah will be beating down the doors to find everyone that hasn’t cast their ballot yet and they’d love to have you join them.
Blue Suspenders
There is still plenty of fun-filled speculation left, though. The biggest question Barack Out With My Cock Out faces is if a symbolic Bible Belt will remain intact across the electoral map. In 2000 and 2004 it was strong and wide, ready for the most excessive of New Mexican belt buckles, but in the last 4 years the belt has withered down so thin, only the trendiest hipster doofus might sport it. For the visually inclined, Realclearpolitics.com provides a great chart of where things stand. When you do the math on how Obama is running at least double the amount of advertising of McCain’s campaign and then add in the fact that Obama’s supporters are twice as enthusiastic about his candidacy as McCain’s (in fairness, the Obama Nation is much younger, more agile and generally more active than McCain’s geriatrics) you start to see the where the election is going.
Now get another plate, we’ve got more things to add. Add in the ties McCain has to Mr. Unpopular AKA President Bush and his proud support of the President’s policies “over 90% of the time” ‘. . . more than most of his Republican colleagues.’ Add to it his statement that he just doesn’t know so much about the economy. On top of that, add the fact that the majority of the battle of this election is not being fought in the swing states, but in the states that were surely expected to support the Republican nominee.
The big question that remains about the election is whether there will be an unabridged belt wrapping across our nation from North Dakota down to Georgia. Barack Out With My Cock Out has studied fivethirtyeight.com, realclearpolitics.com, politico.com and countless other sources for far too long to have any uncertainty in stating that the belt will survive without the blue connecting New Mexico to Maine, but with a shocking surprise in Kansas or South Dakota that goes out the window. It won’t reach from Canada to the Atlantic, but it will get to the Gulf of Mexico.
The Bradley effect and other unfounded notions
Much has been made about the issue of the accuracy of polling and how each poll represents the forthcoming actions of the voters. Every poll has a margin of error for a reason – they just aren’t perfect. We’ll skip the Stat 101 lecture and brush gently on the issues the pollsters face. Finding a perfect representation of the overall population is impossible because you don’t know what that overall population looks like. Not everyone will or is able to vote so pollsters attempt to determine how to represent the portion of people that will participate in the election. A “likely voter universe” is as easy to identify as a Chupacabra or a Poltergeist. But one issue we are confident they are not facing is whether race will skew the polling results in comparison to the electoral results.
A quick stop in History class teaches us that the Bradley Effect derives its name from former Mayor of Los Angeles Tom Bradley and his failed candidacy for the Governorship of California. Bradley was a black politician that was leading in the polls going into Election Day only to end up losing. Many people attributed the divergence in polling numbers and the result to the presumption that people being interviewed for the poll were ashamed to admit they would be voting for the white guy rather than the black man. This theory has had few opportunities to be tested since Bradley’s 1982 defeat. Some fear pollsters over-compensate for racial tensions. Some worry they poll the wrong portions of the population that would have these sentiments. Some fear just the mention of this idea might encourage others to mislead pollsters. Some people go on with their lives. After a painful winter experience in Iowa, Barack Out With My Cock Out knows that people love to mislead pollsters, but does not worry about this throwing the election. The Bradley Effect, if it does exist is said to only account for up to a 5 point shift. So if you look around the nation and award Obama all of the states where he hold at least a 6 point lead, he still wins 277 electoral votes (calculated from realclearpolitics.com’s poll averages – a conservative-leaning site). Let’s say NM Sec. of State Mary Herrera screws up everything in New Mexico and gives away the state’s votes to McCain, . . . Obama still wins with 2 extra votes.
We’re looking at the numbers of young voters that might finally turn out en masse to support the Democratic nominee. We’re looking at the portions of the population that pollsters may not be accurately accounting for in their samples to swing this election far past any Bradley Effect or worse.
We’re also thinking of all of the friends we have that may let a distasteful remark here and there that are still voting for Obama. The most fascinating aspect of Obama’s candidacy is not that he is going to become the first black President, but that he is earning the support of people that otherwise would have nothing to do with people of a different race of your own. More and more voters stuck in the ante bellum days of our republic are coming out in sincere support of Obama. Think about it. Think about all of your friends and those that have used an ugly joke or a slur you’d never imagine uttering in front of a member of that minority group and think about how many of them still have friends of the minority groups they take so much joy in belittling. Racism is not dead, but it has evolved into a very odd form where people hold their views internally, but still behave in a mature manner when face to face in the real world. The world isn’t perfect yet – as evidenced by McCain’s un-ending attempts to convince voters Obama is a Islamic terrorist in order to gain ground in the race – but it is improving and racism has no chance to derail Obama’s victory train.
390-148 and . . . ?
You saw it here first. Two weeks out and that’s the way it’s going to be. Barack Out With My Cock out came to this number by looking at all battlegrounds and acknowledging the superior ground effort, the superior expenditures on advertising and the general shift in the opinions of the country put these states in President-elect Obama’s column. Now the real guessing game is which state that is supposed to be outside of any reach of Obama will also fall his way. Georgia was our choice, but Arkansas, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and even Mississippi are all vying to be the surprise of Election Night.
The more important question is if the Democrats will achieve a cloture-proof majority in the Senate (look it up). As good as this wave we’re riding is, we aren’t holding our breath. The one flaw of fivethirtyeight.com is that it consistently states that the Democrats must pick up nine seats to achieve this very important legislative advantage. However, we cannot hold any faith that the turncoat Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) would abed such ruthless legislating after spending the last year on the campaign trail with Sen. McCain. Maybe it could happen in 2010, but not this year. But we’re dying to be proven incorrect.
To quickly count seat by seat, it appears the Udall boys are ready to roll and will pick up the seats in New Mexico and Colorado (Tom and Mark, respectively). In Oregon, moderate Republican Gordon Smith can’t say enough nice things about Obama to save his seat from being claimed by Jeff Merkley. Virginia has the safest of safe seats for a Dem to win and Mark Warner is doing just that. Jeanne Shaheen will upend Sen. John Sununu’s career in Maine. Kay Hagen will claim what could have been the second senate seat for the Democrats in North Carolina if John Edwards had run for reelection in 2004 (maybe. according to insiders, Edwards probably would have lost his reelection had he at least attempted to hold the seat). Mayor of Anchorage Mark Begich is relieving 40-year Senator Ted Stevens just in time for Stevens to head to jail for the free home makeover he received from lobbyists (way to blame your wife! You’re the man!). And the most laughable of races takes place in Minnesota – those guys just can’t get enough of celebrities and are on track to send Al Franken to Washington because he’s good enough, he’s smart enough, and damnit, people kinda like him.
So that’s eight seats they’ll add. NOW your complaints that the Dem’s aren’t ending the war in Iraq fast enough are valid. Previously, they were unfounded since the Dems did not have a majority in the Senate on that issue because Lieberman just loves dumping $10bil a month into a mission President Bush stated was already accomplished.
The Gut Feeling
At the end of the day, it comes down to the little things. And at the end of the day, Barack Out With My Cock Out wants a President that can stroke a jumper from 15 feet like Larry Bird, not a dying bird. The next update will contain the official voting guide for New Mexicans with encouragement to residents of other states for important contests. As soon as the lazy Mary Herrera-wannabe County Clerk gets me my mail-in ballot, its on. Hey Maggie, put a staffer on dropping my ballot into the mail and get the rest of the team working on fixing your website.
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